Today we present the equity portion of our Technical Tuesday report sent out last week. We waited for week ending data and put together a number of charts of various global equity markets, and in some cases, on multiple timeframes.
A number of the U.S. indices we reviewed are overbought and into a confluence of resistance on a short-term basis. As we noted in last week’s report, “we believe the market is vulnerable to a pullback starting within the next day or two,” the high actually came in on day three.
On a short-term basis, we have a trading sells on the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000 and the Midcap 400 (MDY). All of these indices are into a confluence of resistance and overbought. Our intermediate to long-term view remains bullish as we had extreme readings on a number of market internals into the December low.
Volatility brings opportunity, and we sure have seen a lot of that in recent weeks. As we reviewed the a number of market indices and internals, we feel that for most markets, we have seen an internal low and now wait for the external low to take shape.
This are a number of U.S. and European indices that have either achieved their Money Flow Unit targets or have held and reversed from a Make or Break (MOB) support band or an Ellipse target. There is enough here for us to be covering shorts in these indices and in many cases, going long.
Not much has changed for the U.S. markets when viewed on an intermediate-term basis. We did highlight a short-term buy in the S&P last week based on the daily timeframe and that buy remains in effect. Momentum for the Nasdaq Composite remains very weak and we would continue to use any strength to lighten up on Tech. Defensive areas such as Utilities are holding up very well and we had U.S.REITs as viewed by the IYR trigger a buy this week. We are working on a complete sector review for later this week.
The U.S. indices had a good bounce last week, but not enough to change the overall outlook which remains cautious. The S&P 500 had a 5% rally off the MFU-4 target based on the daily timeframe, but all it has really done is to rally into a zone of resistance. The intermediate-term momentum measures remain weak. We continue to see more weakness in Growth relative to Value.
Of particular note is the negative money flow units that are underway for the U.S. market. Most of the downside targets are coming in at -15% to - 20% from this years highs. The European markets remain very weak as does the Hang Seng and China. The Nikkei has developed a negative money flow unit this week.
The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000, MDY and Dow Transports have all reversed from areas of support. Ideally, we would like to see any pullback create a higher low which would setup a bullish move higher into year end.